Are teams taking action to avoid being Arenased?

As I described in my previous post on the Arenas rule, Rockets GM Daryl Morey used the Arenas rule to steal Jeremy Lin and Omer Asik from their respective teams.  What can teams do to avoid being victims?  Are teams taking action to avoid being Arenased?

Players becoming free agents with 1 or 2 years of experience are the only players susceptible to a predatory Arenas contract.  First round picks don’t become free agents until after their fourth year (unless teams actually want to get rid of them earlier), so only second round picks and non-drafted players are potential targets.

There is one simple way of avoiding predatory Arenas offer sheets, sign each of  your rookies to 3 year deals at least if you think there is any chance at all that he will break out to be a good NBA player.  You don’t even have to guarantee all the money, giving a third non-guaranteed year is a fine way to do this. 

Traditionally non-first rounders have been given only 1 or 2 year deals at most.  But it does look like GMs have started to realize the value of getting at least 3 years down on paper after drafting a guy.

There are 2 issues to consider here.  First, getting a guy to commit to 3 or 4 years will require some concession from the team.  A team is only required to offer 1 guaranteed year at the rookie minimum ($$473,604 currently) in order to retain their rights to a second round pick.  They can offer 3 non-guaranteed years after the first guaranteed year, but the player doesn’t have to accept.  And why would he give the team cheap option years on him without getting something in return?  The team can entice a player to sign for longer by guaranteeing a second year, or even offering a higher salary in the first year.  That brings up the second issue.  If a team wants to offer any more than the rookie minimum to a second round pick, they have to use cap space or exceptions to do it.  Not all teams have these options.

The conclusion is that offering extra years costs the team something and sometimes teams are in a position where offering extra salary isn’t possible.  So a team not offering a 3 year deal could be choosing not to for any of three reasons: they failed to recognize the value of the longer deal, they don’t think they guy is worth the extra cost to get the third year or they can’t offer a bigger deal because their options are limited. 

Are teams worried about getting Arenased?  If so, you’d expect them to start signing second round picks and rookie free agents to 3 year deals more often.  Looking at second round picks, this seems to be happening.  In 2010 there were 19 second round picks (from that year) signed.  Only 3 of them received contracts with 3 or more years, including option years and non-guaranteed years.  In addition, that summer both Lin (undrafted) and Asik (second rounder in 2008) were signed to 2 year contracts.  In 2011, after the new CBA, 9 of 21 second rounders had at least 3 years on their contracts.  In 2012, 10 if 20 had at least 3 years.  I listed the players at the bottom of the article.  So it looks like teams have adjusted their practices after recognizing this threat.

Not surprisingly, Houston had led the charge in this area.  In 2009, they signed 2 second rounders to 4 year deals with 2 years guaranteed, using the mid-level exception to offer higher than minimum salaries.  In 2011 they did the same with Chandler Parsons, who would definitely be an Arenas candidate this summer had he not been given his 4 year deal.  Houston recently signed undrafted center Tim Ohlbrecht to a deal than gives them 2 option years after this year, preventing him from being Arenased should he break out and be a good NBA player.

Are there any Arenas-eligible players becoming free agents in 2013 who might demand a $20 million contract or more?  Actually there are not.  Teams have locked up all the potential candidates to longer deals.  Parsons, Isaiah Thomas and Kyle Singler might have been candidates, but were all wisely signed to 3 or 4 year deals by their current teams.

The best available guys in the summer of 2013 are listed below.  These are the only players I could find who are at least getting some rotation minutes this year.  I don’t think anyone on this list is at risk of a predatory Arenas contract.  Because teams are better protecting themselves, it looks like we might not see many more cases where the Arenas rule can be used to pry away young players from their teams.

Top 2013 free agents elligible for Arenas Contracts (alphabetical order)
Chris Copeland (NY Knicks)
Charles Jenkins (Philadelphia)
Ivan Johnson (Atlanta)
Jon Leuer (Memphis)
Darius Morris (LA Lakers )
Robert Sacre (LA Lakers )
Second round pick contract length in the 2010, 2011 and 2012 drafts.
"years signed" includes option years and non-guaranteed years
"signing team" may not be the drafting team or current team
please send me corrections if you see an error (doctor.oktagon@gmail.com)
	years signed	player	pos	signing team
2010 draft pick #
31	not signed	Tibor Pleiß	C	New Jersey Nets
32	2	Dexter Pittman	C	Miami Heat
33	4	Hassan Whiteside	C	Sacramento Kings
34	1	Armon Johnson	PG	Portland Trail Blazers
35	not signed	Nemanja Bjelica	SF	Washington Wizards
36	not signed	Terrico White	SG	Detroit Pistons
37	2	Darington Hobson	SF	Milwaukee Bucks
38	2	Andy Rautins	SG	New York Knicks
39	2	Landry Fields	SG	New York Knicks
40	4	Lance Stephenson	SG	Indiana Pacers
41	2	Jarvis Varnado	PF	Miami Heat
42	not signed	Da'Sean Butler	SF	Miami Heat
43	2	Devin Ebanks	SF	Los Angeles Lakers
44	1	Jerome Jordan	C	New York Knicks
45	not signed	Paulão Prestes	C	Minnesota Timberwolves
46	2	Gani Lawal	PF	Phoenix Suns
47	not signed	Tiny Gallon	PF	Milwaukee Bucks
48	not signed	Latavious Williams	SF	Miami Heat
49	not signed	Ryan Richards	PF	San Antonio Spurs
50	1	Solomon Alabi	C	Toronto Raptors
51	not signed	Magnum Rolle	PF	Oklahoma City Thunder
52	2	Luke Harangody	PF	Boston Celtics
53	2	Pape Sy	SF	Atlanta Hawks
54	1	Willie Warren	PG	Los Angeles Clippers
55	2	Jeremy Evans	PF	Utah Jazz
56	1	Hamady N'Diaye	C	Washington Wizards
57	3	Ryan Reid	PF	Oklahoma City Thunder
58	2	Derrick Caracter	PF	Los Angeles Lakers
59	not signed	Stanley Robinson	SF	Orlando Magic
60	not signed	Dwayne Collins	PF	Phoenix Suns
2011 draft pick #
31		Bojan Bogdanović	SF	Miami Heat
32	2	Justin Harper	PF	Orlando Magic
33	4	Kyle Singler	SF	Detroit Pistons
34	2	Shelvin Mack	PG	Washington Wizards
35	3	Tyler Honeycutt	SF	Sacramento Kings
36	2	Jordan Williams	PF	New Jersey Nets
37	3	Trey Thompkins	PF	Los Angeles Clippers
38	4	Chandler Parsons	SF	Houston Rockets
39	3	Jeremy Tyler	PF	Charlotte Bobcats
40	2	Jon Leuer	PF	Milwaukee Bucks
41	2	Darius Morris	PG	Los Angeles Lakers
42	not signed	Dāvis Bertāns	SF	Indiana Pacers
43	3	Malcolm Lee	SG	Minnesota Timberwolves
44	2	Charles Jenkins	PG	Golden State Warriors
45	2	Josh Harrellson	C	New York Knicks
46	2	Andrew Goudelock	PG	Los Angeles Lakers
47	2	Travis Leslie	SG	Los Angeles Clippers
48	not signed	Keith Benson	C	Atlanta Hawks
49	3	Josh Selby	PG	Memphis Grizzlies
50	1	Lavoy Allen	PF	Philadelphia 76ers
51	not signed	Jon Diebler	SG	Portland Trail Blazers
52	1	Vernon Macklin	PF	Detroit Pistons
53	1	DeAndre Liggins	SG	Orlando Magic
54	not signed	Milan Mačvan	PF	Cleveland Cavaliers
55	3	E'Twaun Moore	SG	Boston Celtics
56	not signed	Chukwudiebere Maduabum	PF	Los Angeles Lakers
57	not signed	Tanguy Ngombo	SF	Dallas Mavericks
58	not signed	Ater Majok	PF	Los Angeles Lakers
59	not signed	Ádám Hanga	SG	San Antonio Spurs
60	3	Isaiah Thomas	PG	Sacramento Kings
2012 draft pick #
31	3	Jeffery Taylor	SF	Charlotte Bobcats
32	not signed	Tomáš Satoranský	SG	Washington Wizards
33	2	Bernard James	C	Dallas Mavericks
34	3	Jae Crowder	SF	Dallas Mavericks
35	3	Draymond Green	PF	Golden State Warriors
36	3	Orlando Johnson	SG	Indiana Pacers
37	4	Quincy Acy	PF	Toronto Raptors
38	3	Quincy Miller	SF	Denver Nuggets
39	3	Khris Middleton	SF	Detroit Pistons
40	3	Will Barton	SG	Portland Trail Blazers
41	2	Tyshawn Taylor	PG	Brooklyn Nets
42	3	Doron Lamb	SG	Milwaukee Bucks
43	2	Mike Scott	PF	Atlanta Hawks
44	2	Kim English	SG	Detroit Pistons
45	not signed	Justin Hamilton	C	Philadelphia 76ers
46	2	Darius Miller	SF	New Orleans Hornets
47	2	Kevin Murphy	SG	Utah Jazz
48	not signed	Kostas Papanikolaou	SF	New York Knicks
49	3	Kyle O'Quinn	PF	Orlando Magic
50	not signed	İzzet Türkyılmaz	PF	Denver Nuggets
51	2	Kris Joseph	SF	Boston Celtics
52	not signed	Ognjen Kuzmić	C	Golden State Warriors
53	not signed	Furkan Aldemir	PF	Los Angeles Clippers
54	2	Tornike Shengelia	SF	Philadelphia 76ers
55	1	Darius Johnson-Odom	SG	Los Angeles Lakers
56	not signed	Tomislav Zubčić	PF	Toronto Raptors
57	not signed	İlkan Karaman	PF	Brooklyn Nets
58	not signed	Robbie Hummel	SF	Minnesota Timberwolves
59	not signed	Marcus Denmon	PG	San Antonio Spurs
60	1	Robert Sacre	C	Los Angeles Lakers